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海螺水泥:水泥行业供需短期稳定,未来2-3年将积极进行并购

更新日期: 2018年08月30日 来源: 智通财经网 【字体:
摘要:2018年上半年公司实现营业收入457.4亿元人民币,同比增长43.36%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润129.4亿元,同比增长92.68%。
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? ? 编者按:调研通由智通俱乐部会员供稿,文章只提供股友讨论,不构成投资建议。
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? ? 业绩概览:
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? ? 2018年上半年公司实现营业收入457.4亿元人民币,同比增长43.36%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润129.4亿元,同比增长92.68%;基本每股收益2.44元。
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? ? 报告期内受产品销售价格提升和销量增加影响,集团营业利润、利润总额以及归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别较去年同期上升89.78%、86.71%和92.68%。
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? ? 集团综合成本为172.22元/吨,同比上升17.72元/吨,增幅为11.47%。报告期内,销售费用、管理费用、研发费用、财务费用合计占主营业务收入的比重为7.19%,同比下降了2.59个百分点,主要是由于主营业务收入金额增加所致。
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? ? 截至报告期末,公司熟料产能2.48亿吨,水泥产能3.44亿吨,骨料产能3,090万吨,商品混凝土60万立方米。集团水泥和熟料合计净销量为1.43亿吨,同比增长6.87%,其中自产品销量1.37亿吨。由于产品综合销价大幅上涨,产品综合毛利率为44.83%,较上年同期上升11.86个百分点;其中自产自销产品综合毛利率为46.47%,较上年同期上升13.41个百分点。
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? ? Q&A:
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? ? Q:产能积压的问题,水泥提价概率是100%,水泥价格这么高,政府会不会出来干扰?印尼有水泥公司打算卖出资产,公司会不会买,如果其他人买了,那公司在印尼的策略会不会改变?因为最近印尼价格反弹了。
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? ? A:现在中国水泥还是过剩,过剩率超过30%。政府现在是改善供需关系,也为了改善环境实施错峰生产。同时,今年加强了基础建设的强度,导致了需求端增长。所以,这是政府宏观经济造成的供求结果。所以大家的担心可能是多余的。当然我们企业一定会遵守国家的法律进行生产。冬季环保错峰生产力度如果加强,如果扩展到80个城市,那Q4供应会进一步减少,那可能会拉大价格上升的空间,下半年供需矛盾可能会更突出。
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? ? 关于印尼部分同行资产出售的问题。最近很多同行和我们交流,希望我们能否一起收购。目前状况下我们没有兴趣参与,原因是我们的布局在实施过程中,我们还是集中精力实施自己的战略。另外他们的估值和我们差距很大,所以我们不在这方面过多消耗精力。
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? ? Q:近期会有更严格的环保检查,华东熟料、水泥会短缺吗?会把其他地区水泥调过来吗?Q4 如果价格升高,越南、周边地区的水泥会不会进来?管理层对主要几个区域的下半年价格、毛利判断是怎样,库存是怎样?我们的现金流很好,利润也是历史高峰,中长期现金运用?
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? ? A:整体上华东产销平衡,阶段性会有外来输入,但华东也有一部分出去。那Q4可能华东会有局部紧张,导致价格上升,这是好事。那海螺的资源是沿着长江布置的,我们可能从重庆、河南过来一些资源。另外,我们常年外购熟料,可以满足我们产能的需要。
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? ? 越南水泥进来的量是受限的,我们元月把熟料从500元变成330元的时候就是在打击越南熟料。另外,因为越南的产能也是充分发挥的,它能留给中国的资源有限的,这是一点。另外,越南进入中国卸货受到环保政策的挑战,以前他们使用驳船卸货,但现在必须要靠岸卸货,码头资源有限,而且等候时间长,码头费用大幅提高,原来10块现在成本变成20-30,最后我们控制着渠道,所以熟料价格可以上涨。所以越南熟料对中国影响不大。
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? ? 对于华东华南展望,华东基数大,经济增长比较快,所以价格还有上升空间。华南今年是超预期的,两广需求增长接近8%,广西更好一些,但是最近广东价格也上涨了20块钱。中西部由于扶贫政策,国家加大投资,所以需求比较稳定,我们认为中西部下半年超预期可能比较大。所以整体上看,保持向上趋势。总体库存不足50%。
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? ? 公司现金流是很充裕,中长期主要会这么用:1)保留充足资本性开支;2)分红,我们这么多年累计分红200+亿,是募集资金1.7 倍。未来还是保持稳妥的分红政策。我们现在PB、PE 还是比较低,我们会根据股价变化实施稳妥分红政策。
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? ? Q:关于盈利的持续性问题。从未来2、3 年角度,水泥需求持续性多强?价格高位维持的可能多大?公司战略布局是怎样,未来2年有没有销量目标,国内和海外的目标?
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? ? A:我们的业绩可持续性问题大家都很关心。明年按照我们现有数据,供求还是稳定的,随着供给侧结构性改革,比如蓝天保卫战计划,城市空气PM2.5都要35以下,这对工业企业管控进一步加大,导致水泥行业供应收缩,这就有利于我们产能的充分发挥。我们是水泥环保的标杆行业,我们各个指标,粉尘、二氧化硫等等指标都是按国家指标的1/3、1/2 来严格要求的,所以我们的产能不受环保影响,所以我们业绩是稳定的。
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? ? 另外,公司未来会通过行业整合,3-5年内建立贸易平台,排除过去地区价格的差异,解决低价冲击高价地区的问题。比如东北的水泥到沿海基本都是通过我们贸易公司平台输送的;而越南的水泥可供应量是有限的,在我们接受范围内的。
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? ? 未来2-3年发展计划,我们还会积极抓住并购机会。我们接触的水泥标的还有十几家,主要是第一代产业人做水泥之后,第二代人对这个行业兴趣不大,想出售水泥资产。另外,海螺对水泥产业的运作、管理他们认可,所以他们愿意出卖一部分股权,让海螺来管理,反而效益更好。还有,我们会加大上下游产业链的联合,跟地方政府平台合作,探索更多商业模式。
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? ? 国外这块,我们会加大一带一路沿线的国家投资。我们在印尼、缅甸、老挝、突尼斯等国家都有规划,但是推进进度比我们预期放缓,因为前期实践需要比较多时间,但我们很有信心,因为我们的设备、资金、能力等等都有。那业绩我们是看长期的,而不是短期利益。
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? ? Q:库存的问题。我们的库存在下降,那明年开春之后库存会紧张吗?我们会不会潜在失去一部分价格更好的市场?并购要不要迫切一些?刚刚说到进口熟料靠岸的问题,这个背景是什么?靠岸成本提升了多少?这是阶段性的吗?还是不可逆的情况?
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? ? A:从去年下半年到现在都是库存低谷。我们价格没有回调,因为我们没有水泥了所以降价就没有意义,所以我们低库存造就了价格上涨。明年年初低库存有望实现的话,明年年初我们的价格可以保持。如果我们海螺环保表现比较好,那冬天错峰生产可能会局部不实施,那我们产能可以进一步提升。
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? ? 关于进口熟料的问题,这个还是和环保有关。现在政府只允许沙石这种污染不大的可以过驳,煤炭、熟料这种都要求岸上进行卸货,如果你粉尘大,政府会有无人机来监视你,所以现在总体卸货效率、卸货量受到限制,去年11 月之后华东大批熟料在南通等卸货,滞港费很高,成本上划不来,所以今年基本看不到这种情况了。过去长江上过驳成本不超过10,现在岸上过驳成本20-30,成本提高很多。
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? ? Q:本来不是说收购西部水泥吗?我们下一步有考虑这个问题吗?
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? ? A:因为商务部没有通过,项目搁置。目前没有股权收购的合作,但我们依旧是他们第二大股东,他们技术如果有需要,我们都积极帮助。未来不排除有继续深入合作的可能。
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? ? Q:上半年分区域的毛利情况?
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? ? A:上半年总体毛利在130-150元之间。西部略低130左右,东部都是150几,两广相对高一些。
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? ? Q:下半年中国各地区价格会怎样?
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? ? A:各个区域情况,东北西北都是人口流出,所以这些区域都需求下降了。华东以上海为例,需求维持在2000-2100万,高位平衡。表现最好是浙江市场,安徽、江西保持略有增长,在浙江拉动下,我们还是很看好华东的市场。两广地区今年确实很不错,下半年两广市场我们认为能保持同比去年6%-8%的增长。两广毛利也是最高的。我们判断两广需求增长能有效吸收新增产能,所以价格有上涨空间,而且这里受外来水泥影响不大。由于2020脱贫攻坚战,贵州云南川渝投资巨大,川渝的价格维持得很不错,而且没有新增产能,所以我们判断这部分整体还是很有希望的。
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? ? 价格的上涨空间,理论上说下半年毛利比上半年好,下半年需求会多一点,而产能没有增加。另外价格稳定性会更好,全球水泥平均水平80-100美金,我们还不到这个水平,还有上涨空间。
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