《中国水泥》杂志

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新增“闸门”变相打开 “重灾区”是否还有救

更新日期: 2019年08月12日 作者: 中国水泥协会 王晓亮 【字体:
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? ? 2018年水泥行业效益创历史最好水平。在宏观经济平稳向好,政府加强环保治理、强化大气污染防治、行业积极推进供给侧结构性改革的大背景下,保持了市场供需动态平衡,使经济效益明显增长。但值得警惕和担忧的是良好效益促使个别省份新的产能项目建设(包括续建、置换等)有明显抬头迹象,梳理中发现云南省首当其冲。
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? ? 是什么原因使得云南省产生了如此庞大的拟在建生产线?这些产能全部投放后对未来市场的影响如何?目前的建设进度又怎样?怀着上述疑问,近期,数字水泥网对云南省水泥市场进行了调研,走访了省水泥协会和省内部分水泥企业,以期探询一二。
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? ? 新上产能总量庞大,项目建设如火如荼
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? ? 统计数据显示:截止2019年4月,云南省拟在建熟料生产线共计16条,总产能1807万吨,占全国拟在建产能总量的30%,位居榜首。
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? ? 从实地调研情况来看,已公示的16条生产线中,一条已于5月初投产;另一条因部分置换指标刚公示,具体投放进度尚不明确;其余14条生产线均处在建状态,且大部分项目建设进度如火如荼。
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? ? 数字水泥网统计数据显示,云南省现有水泥熟料产能9294万吨,上述在建置换产能全部投产、并剔除少部分被置换的在产产能后,云南省熟料设计总产能将达1.1亿吨,实际产能1.2亿吨左右,增长率为17%~18%。
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? ? 然而,以上这些新增生产线或许还不是全部。据业内相关人士介绍,在2016年工信部联原〔2016〕118号《工业和信息化部、发展改革委关于印发水泥行业部分项目处理意见的通知》中,云南省违规在建水泥熟料项目共32个。除已建成、已置换项目外,目前尚有9个项目没有开展产能置换,涉及水泥熟料产能705万吨。倘若这9个项目也通过使用无效指标或异地置换的方式建成投产,将会对未来云南的市场环境造成巨大压力。
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? ? 历史遗留问题、当前需求和盈利较好,催生了此轮置换热潮
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? ? 想要探究云南省水泥拟在建产能如此庞大的原因,就得上溯至十年前。
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? ? 为了化解水泥行业产能严重过剩的矛盾,国家曾专门下发了两个指导文件:国发〔2009〕38号文件和国发〔2013〕41号文件。据了解,在两个文件下发前后那段时间内,云南省相关部门曾密集审批通过了一批熟料生产线,但在后期的建设过程中,由于国家对违规生产线的管控趋严,一些缺少完整手续的生产线被叫停,这就产生了大量遗留拟在建生产线。2016年至2017年底,云南省使用了部分立窑产能置换指标,将一部分遗留生产线合法化。
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? ? 2018年产能置换新政出台后,不管是相关地方政府部门还是被搁置的在建水泥企业,都开始积极推进置换项目工作,以期能尽早投产、获取回报。以本次前往调研的某水泥企业为例:省政府的批文是2012年拿到的,2014年被国家相关部门紧急叫停,直到2018年通过产能置换得以恢复建设。目前,该项目正处于紧锣密鼓的建设中。但由于建设周期被拉得过长,且前期投入的资金被长期占用,该企业的投资总成本大幅增加。
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? ? 调研中,数字水泥网还了解到,除了历史遗留问题所导致的置换产能不断增加以外,受当前市场需求旺盛、吨毛利丰厚等驱使,新上置换项目的积极性也很高,如景谷红狮、尖峰大展。
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? ? 总体来看,云南省的水泥熟料置换产能之所以数量庞大,与其历史遗留问题关系密切。同时,由于区域发展不平衡,局部地区水泥供应仍处短缺状态,短期内的利润可观,也催生了企业的置换热潮。
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? ? 短期市场供需关系虽好,但未来持续性存疑
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? ? 近几年,在高速公路、铁路、水利水电等重大基建项目,以及新农村建设和扶贫项目的拉动下,云南省水泥需求呈持续上升态势。统计数据显示,2016年云南省水泥需求量突破1亿吨;其后2年则以3%~4%的增速继续保持增长,截至2018年,云南省水泥年需求总量接近1.2亿吨,在全国排名第七位。
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? ? 需求向好态势在2019年得以延续。国家统计局数据显示,今年1~4月份,云南省水泥累计产量为3900万吨,同比增长5.98%,全国排名进一步跃升到第四位。从数字水泥网微观监测到的重点企业出货情况来看,自3月中旬市场需求启动以来,云南多数水泥企业的出货率持续保持在100%,部分企业甚至供不应求,需求旺盛程度强于周边市场。
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? ? 2019年4月18日,云南省政府办公厅印发了《云南省实施“补短板、增动力”省级重点前期项目行动计划(2019—2023年)》,提出将投资6万亿元,谋划推动2352个省级重点前期项目,推动有效投资稳定增长。受此鼓舞,大部分有置换产能的水泥企业均看好未来三至五年的需求前景,认为在基础设施建设的拉动下,云南省水泥需求会持续性向好发展。
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? ? 但对此预期,数字水泥网持不同观点。因为综合区域熟料产能利用率、人均水泥消费量和在建置换项目等所有情况来看,实际上,当前所呈现出的这种较好供需关系,可持续性并不强。
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? ? 一个重要原因,是云南省依然属于产能过剩区域。数据显示,近五年云南省熟料产能利用率平均在67%, 2018年运转率最高,为73%;预计2019年产能利用率将与2018年持平。全年行业过剩产能仍在30%左右。
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? ? 第二个原因,是云南省的水泥人均消费量已处于较高水平,大幅提升空间有限。2018年,云南省水泥人均消费量达到2.4吨,高于全国平均水平0.8吨;在整个西南地区也是仅次于贵州省,排第二位。以贵州峰值人均3吨的消费量为对标(注:贵州人均3吨出现拐点),对云南人均消费量做乐观假设的话,可以推算出其需求量峰值为1.4亿吨左右,较当前约有16%的增长空间,也就是说,在产能利用率保持70%不变的情况下,目前的在建置换产能还勉强可以消化。但核心问题是,在资金方面,云南省财政以及政府融资能力能否如同贵州省一样,这一点上暂时存疑。
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? ? 最后需要强调的一点是,在偏远地区尤其是以基建投资拉动为主的地区,项目密集建设时,水泥需求均会呈现较大弹性;同理,需求出现回落时,其回落速度和幅度也会明显大于东南部经济发达地区。
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? ? 置换产能投放将会对市场产生的影响上述总量庞大的在建产能全部按计划投放到市场之后,将会在业内激起怎样的涟漪?对此,数字水泥网进行了梳理:
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? ? 1、短期内会影响市场价格稳定,使得水泥价格出现回落。云南省目前在建置换产能主要分布在滇中,这一地区的企业竞争本就略显激烈,因此,今年下半年,随着置换产能陆续投放,短期内价格出现波动或不可避免。譬如,近期文山地区,因壮山实业投复产,低价抢量,导致水泥价格一个月内连续三次下调,累计暴跌90元/吨。从侧面也反映出,新上产能不在主导企业(指自律倡导者)手中,对市场的“杀伤力”更大。
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? ? 2、中期将导致行业集中度下降、自律难度增大。目前,云南省的在建置换产能归属过于分散,仅有3条生产线隶属于大企业集团,其他多为单体企业。因此,上述产能全部投产后,将会导致省内前五家大企业的集中度由原先62%下降至55%。再加上云南省本就没有政府支持下展开的错峰生产政策,因此,行业自律难度会进一步增大。
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? ? 3、长期来看,会使得行业结构调整难上加难。通常情况下,水泥行业的结构调整一般是指提升集中度和压减产能,然而,大量置换产能投放后,云南省的水泥企业集中度不升反降,并且由于异地置换的被允许,云南本地的有效产能也会大大增加,这一切,都会使得未来云南水泥行业的结构调整雪上加霜。
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? ? 异地置换应予取消
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? ? 路再难,也得走下去。不管怎样,数字水泥网仍然希望,云南的相关部门和水泥企业都能理性面对这一现实,审时度势、未雨绸缪地的走好未来地每一步。
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? ? 一、建议水泥企业对未来的市场需求总量进行科学、理性的评估,从而减少盲目置换新上产能的行为。
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? ? 二、建议取消异地置换,避免本地有效产能过度增加。目前,云南省日产1500t/d及以下的小规模产能仍有1000万吨左右,同时,云南市场封闭性较强,难以借助其他周边区域释放过剩产能,因此,当前云南水泥产能置换行为应以优化区域产能为目的,取消异地置换,才能真实避免本地产能增加。
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? ? 三、建议支持大企业集团通过联合重组等方式进行市场整合,优化资源配置和产业布局,提高产业集中度,维护行业利益,引领行业技术进步和实现绿色发展。
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