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贵州水泥需求下滑叠加新增产能 双重压力下水泥业面临发展困境

更新日期: 2019年06月25日 作者: 本刊记者 梁喜琴 【字体:
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? ? 今年一季度,宏观经济平稳向好,基础设施补短板投资力度进一步增强,房地产投资快速增长,水泥行业开局良好,全国水泥产量同增大幅增长9.38%。在全国水泥业普遍向好的情况下,贵州省水泥市场情况却不甚乐观。根据国家统计局数据显示,今年一季度,贵州省水泥产量1904万吨,同比下降6.9%,是除海南以外降幅最严重的省份。从近5年同期水对比来看,2016~2018年贵州省连续3年一季度水泥产量达2000万吨以上,今年一季度与2017年同期产量相差近300万吨,为2016年以来同期最低水平。据数字水泥网调研,贵州省实际需求量的下降幅度较水泥产量的下降幅度还要大。
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? ? 一季度,贵州省内实际水泥需求量约为1200万,省内需求较去年同期下降约40%,预计全年水泥需求将呈现出负增长。
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? ? 贵州省水泥工业协会会长龚雷海在日前接受数字水泥网专访时表示,一季度需求下滑的主要原因是,今年以来,贵州省陆续受雨雪凝冻天气、传统两节淡季、基建工程开工率不足、基建投资资金到位不足等方面影响,市场需求远不足于预期。
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? ? 需求拐点或已提前到来
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? ? 国务院实施“西部大开发”战略促进了贵州省经济的迅猛发展,GDP增速连续多年位居全国前三位。投资是拉动贵州省经济快速增长的主要动力,“十一五”至“十二五”期间,固定资产投资同比增长年均约达30%,其中,2009~2013年连续5年每年增速达到30%以上,投资直接带动水泥需求快速增长,这5年间贵州省水泥产量保持高位增长,年均增长达32.6%,增速最低时也达到22%以上。2015年受全国经济放缓影响,贵州省也结束了水泥产业的高速增长期,水泥产量同比增速出现大幅放缓态势。但是,进入“十三五”以来,贵州省启动实施《贵州省农村“组组通”公路三年大决战实施方案(2017-2019年)》,大抓以农村“组组通”公路为重点的基础设施建设、易地扶贫搬迁、农村危房改造和住房保障,再次拉动水泥需求保持较快增长,部分区域出现爆发式增长,甚至出现区域性供应不足的现象。2016年贵州省水泥产量突破1亿吨,2017和2018年水泥产量维持在1.1亿吨左右。但是,从去年下半年以后开始明显出现需求疲软态势。对于经济基础较为薄弱和经济活力不足的地区,更容易出现大起大落的现象,投资的暴涨往往透支了未来的市场需求。
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? ? 根据贵州省水泥协会的统计,2017年扶贫工程在短时间拉动全省部分地区需求井喷式上涨,占全省总需求量的13%左右,2018年扶贫工程项目水泥用量占全省总需求量的32%以上。近两年扶贫工程项目对水泥的需求实际上是透支了未来民用市场的部分水泥需求量,随着扶贫工程项目的结束和基础设施建设的不断完善,未来需求必然出现快速下滑,今年一季度就已经显现出这种迹象。按常住人口计算,目前,贵州省人均水泥产量约为3吨,已远远高于全国人均产量1.8吨的平均水平;贵州省人均累计水泥产量已达24吨,超过全国峰值期水平4吨以上,显示出需求已达峰值的迹象,面临着向下的趋势,2018年有可能是贵州省水泥需求峰值年,向下的拐点已然形成。未来贵州省水泥需求或许也会出现平台期内小幅波动,但这个平台期不会太长, 届时行业的发展形势将会更加严峻。
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? ? 新增产能导致集中度下降,市场竞争加剧
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? ? 自中国建材集团对西南进行大规模收购整合后,贵州省水泥行业产业集中度得到大幅提升,行业效益也出现大幅提升。国办发34号文件对于产能过剩的水泥产业提出了提高中度的目标,但是,近年来由于新增产能过多,贵州省的水泥产业集中度不仅没有得到提升,反而出现了下降。
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? ? 近两年,贵州省水泥需求快速增长,加上行业推进供给侧结构性改革,市场环境有所改善,无形中又刺激了一些地方政府及企业的投资欲望,新增产能有所抬头。据数字水泥网调查统计,2018年贵州省新建投产3条水泥熟料生产线,共计新增熟料设计产能440万吨,占去年全行业新增投产熟料产能的20%,为新增熟料产能最多的省份,而这新增产能全部来自于非大企业集团,这进一步降低了贵州省的产业集中度,2018年贵州省前5企业产业集中度比2017年下降了3个百分点,由67%降至64%,加剧了市场的恶性竞争,去年下半年以来,贵州省的水泥价格持续走低也验证了这一点。
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? ? 新增产能现象依然存在,产能过剩矛盾会更加突出
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? ? 贵州省一直存在着产能过剩问题,2014~2016年熟料产能利用率均为70%以下,最低时只有60%,由于2016和2017年只有1条年设计能力78万吨的熟料生产线投产,且扶贫工程拉动需求快速增长,2017和2018年产能利用率提高至75%和77%,但从全省来看,依然过剩较为严重。2018年贵州省人均水泥产能已达4吨,超过本省需求高峰期人均需求量1吨以上,超过全国需求高峰期人均需求量2吨以上,随着新增产能的释放,这一数据还会加大。
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? ? 除了目前在建生产线,贵州省产能置换项目也存在新增产能的情况。根据各地方政府公示消息,2018年贵州西南水泥有两个置换项目完全按照1:1.25比例进行产能减量置换,且置换产能均为省内产能,有利于落实推进省内去产能。但也有其他产能置换项目尚未明确减量置换产能比例情况,或为跨省产能置换,造成新增产能。根据甘肃省工信委公示,贵州东立水泥有限公司受让甘肃年产21万吨熟料产能,拟建5000t/d熟料新型干法水泥生产线技改项目,该项目熟料设计产能为年产155万吨,为跨省产能置换项目;今年初,浙江尖峰集团公告,拟出资3166.73万元,收购贵州黄平谷陇铭川水泥有限公司100%股权。收购完成后,将投资约6.5亿元建设日产4500吨水泥熟料新型干法水泥生产线异地技改项目。据了解,该项目属于停建项目,该项目20万吨水泥产能置换指标已于2017年8月由贵州省收回用于其他项目。
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? ? 近两年,贵州省已有1200万吨以上新增产能及新增扩能相继释放,加上未来仍有多条新增产能项目或将开工建设,必将给市场带来更大的压力,且今年需求下行走势已经形成,未来水泥产能过剩会更加严重。
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? ? 水泥价格持续下行,与西南其他省和周边省份的价差越拉越大
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? ? 根据数字水泥网对全国31个省(直辖市、自治区)主流市场P.O42.5散装水泥价格的监测,近5年贵州省主流市场水泥价格(含税到位价)基本处于全国平均线下运行,与其他各省主流市场相比属于价格偏低水平,尤其是去年4季度以来,由于需求下滑,新增产能释放,水泥价格持续走低,成为西南四省(云南、贵州、四川和重庆)主流市场价格最低区域,与周边的湖南、广东和广西相比也是价格最低的地区,自去年下半年以来,价差持续拉大。
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? ? 2018年7月份,贵阳水泥月平均价格与成都和重庆的价差为40~50元,高于昆明15元/吨,与长沙、广州和南宁分别相差50元/吨、90元/吨和10元/吨,而至今年一季度,贵阳与川渝价差提高至165~180元/吨,由原来高于昆明价格转变为低于昆明38~50元/吨,与长沙价差提高至110~135元/吨,与广州价差提高至180~185元/吨,与南宁的价差也达到70~85元/吨。
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? ? 需求下滑和新增产能给贵州省水泥市场带来了双重压力,产能过剩矛盾更加突出,加剧了市场的恶性竞争,最显著的特征就是实施价格战,不仅本省的市场环境出现恶化,行业效益大幅下降,也影响了周边省份市场的稳定性,对行业整体的效益稳增长带来一定的影响。由于存在巨大有价差,有利可图,低价区的水泥必然往高价区流动。贵州省水泥协会有关负责人介绍,以往都是外省水泥往贵州省流入,今年则相反,由于市场需求下滑十分严重,大量水泥销往省外,一季度省外销量约300多万吨。贵州的水泥(熟料)不仅往西南其他省市走,同时也流向湖南、广西和广东粤港澳大湾区,最远甚至流向了河南和河北市场。虽然外销的量有限,但会影响到其他省水泥价格的稳定。
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? ? 化解产能过剩矛盾,应对市场下行风险
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? ? 在全国水泥行业效益日趋好转情况下,东北地区却出现连年亏损,这一方面是由于经济滑坡、需求大幅下降,另一方面也是由于在行业效益较好时,不断新增产能,未能有效压减过剩产能,导致今日陷入难以自拔的困境。为了不让东北水泥的今天成为贵州水泥的明天,必须未雨绸缪,及早做好应对措施。
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? ? 第一,遏制新增产能,严禁任何形式的新增产能。必须充分认识到贵州省水泥需求的增长空间已经非常有限,需求下行压力在不断加大,新增产能可能给行业和企业带来的风险不容小觑,甚至对社会的稳定也会造成一定的影响。贵州省水泥工业协会龚雷海会长强调,要杜绝一切形式的违规新增产能,中国水泥协会把推进去产能作为行业供给侧结构性改革中重中之重的工作。
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? ? 第二,严禁跨省置换增加省内产能,严肃查处违规置换产能,避免重复置换、等量置换、增量置换以及其他违规置换情况的发生。协会发挥对省内跨区域减量置换政策执行监督的协调作用。
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? ? 第三,在政府的支持下,发挥大企业的引领作用,鼓励省内有条件的主导企业发挥资金和资源优势,推动省内落后和低效产能通过减量置换退出市场,优化市场布局,实现真正去产能的目的。
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? ? 第四,支持大企业集团通过联合重组等方式进行市场整合,优化资源配置和产业布局,提高产业集中度,维护行业利益,引领行业技术进步和实现绿色发展。
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